I've decided instead of coming up with cheeky/snarky/semi-intelligent headlines, every post for the rest of my existence will simply be "Ball." Doesn't get any more succinct than that.
STATS LIE
The Raptors are 4-0 this season when Chris Bosh turns the ball over six times or more.
NOT BUYING WHAT THE TURK IS SELLING
Definitely not buying Hedo Turkoglu's go-to explanation for when he plays well. The Turk seems to think that it's dependent on the team giving him the ball in order for him to produce. I emphatically disagree. They give him the ball all the time, it's just a matter of whether he's had the energy to do anything with it. Last night, he did. Consider:
HEDO TURKOGLU
FIELD GOALS AT THE RIM THIS SEASON
Jan. 28 vs NYK 5
Nov. 29 vs PHX 3
Dec. 13 vs HOU 3
11 times 2
He had five layups / dunks last night, a season-high. Two things: First, it's pretty embarrassing that he's only had three games this season with three field goals at the rim or more (compared to 17 games with 0 field goals at the rim). Secondly, notice a trend with the teams he's done it against? Knicks, Suns, and Rockets --- They all allow over 100 points per game, and they all lack size (& shot blockers) up front. All I'm saying is: I'll be impressed if Turkoglu puts his body on the line and gets to the rim against Boston or Orlando. It doesn't impress me against the Knicks.
THE POINT GUARD DEBATE
We really are going back in time to the good ol' days of Caldeford. Two point guards, almost equally splitting time, each wanting to finish games. Quite honestly, I don't think it's even been close in terms of who has played better. However, one of them keeps making up for overall poor play by hitting a big shot or two in the fourth quarter (and that seems to be all fans remember). But let's look at the numbers:
POINT GUARDS
SINCE CALDERON'S RETURN
Jack: 4 assists per game, 2.1 ast/to ratio, -32
Calderon: 5 assists per game, 4.5 ast / to ratio, +88
Calderon has been a plus in 10 of the 12 games. Jack has been a plus in 2 of the 12 games. However, a big layup against the Knicks, some tough finishes against the Lakers, and people are still convinced Jack is a better point guard for this team.
Whatever, it's still 48 minutes of above-average point guard play, something that I said was the key missing ingredient to last year's team. Consider:
TORONTO POINT GUARDS - A NEW ERA
09-10 Caldejack 22 pts, 11 ast, 5 reb, 4 to, 49% FG, 40% 3PT, 81% FT
07-08 Caldeford 23 pts, 14 ast, 5 reb, 4 to, 49% FG, 41% 3PT, 89% FT
06-07 Caldeford 22 pts, 13 ast, 5 reb, 5 to, 46% FG, 32% 3PT, 82% FT
As you can see, the numbers are nearly identical (the only reason the assist numbers are down is because of the presence of Turkoglu). Otherwise, you're still getting 48 minutes of efficient, offensive basketball from your point guards. And as a bonus, "Jack" meshes just as well with "Calde" as "Ford" did.
8 comments:
Agreed on all counts
And yet looking at PER differential, Jack is better (significantly better?) than Jose as a PG. Admittedly, both are in negatives but Jack is on the verge of winning the positional PER battle. I hear what you've said before about digging a hole in the 1st quarter of late but I'm thinking the coaches should leave the units alone. Maybe tweak minutes a bit in the course of games. At the moment it seems like a good problem to have.
Defense starts and offense comes off the bench. As long a you get both every night no worries.
Plus/minus by itself is meaningless. You have to adjust for quality of people you are playing with and against.
I could argue that Calderon is a borderline starting PG playing against bench players, so units featuring him should have high +/-.
Otoh, Jack plays against starters.
Finally, you didn't even normalize by the number of minutes played. Once you do that, both numbers you gave will probably be close to zero..
At any rate, there is plenty of statistical evidence (net PER, **adjusted** +/- [see www.basketballvalue.com]) that suggests Calderon has been thoroughly outplayed by Jack this year.
But at the end of the day, Jack versus Calderon is a useless discussion. The right question is which PG fits better playing alongside Turk, Bargs, and Bosh, both offensively and defensively?
-- Ripp
"The Raptors are 4-0 this season when Chris Bosh turns the ball over six times or more."
I wonder if that's because Bosh is working in heavy traffic, and the other 4 guys have better scoring chances. What is the FG% of the other 4 on the floor with him, compared to season average? Does some individual player like Bargnani go off on those nights because CB is drawing the double? If that is the case, then double teaming Bosh doesn't work that well.
The Point Guard Debate:
It seems to me that when the Raps dig themselves a hole, it has more to do with poor shooting and sloppy ball handling than poor point guard play. If this happens on Jack's watch, then it is up to the other 4 guys to pick it up.
Your argument on the pgs is not convincing. Stop analyzing their PER when jack obviously plays against starters and calderon against bench. Also, the biggest merit of jack is his defense being way better than calderons and those stats are much harder to track.
Dear Caldejack,
Great Blog, keep up the good work!
The Raps bench has been huge of late, especially in last nights game: Caldy, Amir and Wright combined for 39pts, 16reb, 11as on 17 - 26 Shooting.
Are there any statistics to quantify how well the Raps bench has been playing? Who statistically has the best bench in the L?
Thanks,
Graham Smith
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